Chinese property

　　中國(guó)的房地產(chǎn)

　　BUBBLES are supposed to burst with an audiblepop. But in the snap and crackle of the Chinesehousing market, it is hard to hear anything clearly. On June 9th the Wall Street Journal put itsear to the ground and declared that the great property bubble of China may be popping. Itpointed out that prices had fallen by 4.9% in the year to April in nine big cities tracked byRosealea Yao of GaveKal Dragonomics, a consultancy. Ms Yao herself thinks a correction inthe next six months is inevitable. But she argues that it is still a bit early to say the bubble isbursting.

　　泡沫爆破時(shí)本應(yīng)是有聲的。中國(guó)房地產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)雖是噼里啪啦地好不喧鬧，卻很難聽(tīng)清個(gè)中詳況。6月9日，華爾街日?qǐng)?bào)側(cè)耳傾聽(tīng)了一番后發(fā)表說(shuō)中國(guó)巨大的房產(chǎn)泡沫也許正在爆破。該報(bào)指出，今年截至4月九大城市的房產(chǎn)價(jià)格下降了4.9%，這是一家咨詢機(jī)構(gòu)GaveKal Dragonomics的Rosealea Yao所掌握到的信息。Ms Yao認(rèn)為在未來(lái)6個(gè)月內(nèi)房產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)必將迎來(lái)一段調(diào)整期。但她也認(rèn)為，現(xiàn)在說(shuō)泡沫會(huì)爆破還為時(shí)過(guò)早。

　　Official figures released on June 14th added more noise. They suggested that builders startedwork on 19% more residential floorspace in May, compared with a year earlier, and sold 18%more. But the sales figures were flattered by comparison with May 2010, an unusually slowmonth following a government clampdown on speculative homebuying a few weeks before. Andthe starts figures may have picked up the governments drive to build more affordablehousing.

　　6月14日發(fā)布的官方數(shù)據(jù)讓喧鬧之聲更起。這些數(shù)據(jù)表明，承建商在5月開(kāi)始動(dòng)工的住宅建筑比起一年前的多出19%，售出的也增加了18%。但銷售數(shù)據(jù)與2010年5月時(shí)比起來(lái)算是比較可喜的了，那個(gè)月正逢政府打壓房產(chǎn)買賣投資的幾個(gè)星期后，銷售形勢(shì)出奇地滯慢。而此段開(kāi)頭的那個(gè)數(shù)字也許會(huì)讓中國(guó)政府重拾建造更多經(jīng)濟(jì)適用房的勁頭。

　　In other countries, such as America, economists canrely on clear signals from credible price indices. InChina the National Bureau of Statistics used topublish a price index spanning 70 cities. But thatmeasure muted both the highs and lows of Chinashousing market. It suggested that prices for newand existing homes never fell by more than 1.3%during the financial crisis, and never rose by morethan 12.8% a year in the boom that followed. Thatwas hard to square with the head-splitting priceshomebuyers were paying in the big cities. Peoplestopped paying attention to the national index. In December the government ceased publishingit.

　　在別的國(guó)家，比如在美國(guó)，可信的物價(jià)指數(shù)可以給出明確的信號(hào)，經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家可以借此加以分析。在中國(guó)，國(guó)家統(tǒng)計(jì)局過(guò)去通常發(fā)表的是包括70個(gè)城市在內(nèi)的物價(jià)指數(shù)。但那種方法并無(wú)法說(shuō)明中國(guó)房地產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)的起起落落。它只是表明，即便是在經(jīng)濟(jì)危機(jī)時(shí)期新建和現(xiàn)有住宅的銷售量在一年內(nèi)跌幅也從未超過(guò)1.3%，且在隨之而來(lái)的繁榮期里其漲幅也從未超過(guò)12.8%。那可和大城市里購(gòu)房者面臨的令人頭疼的房?jī)r(jià)是不相符的。人們已不再關(guān)注國(guó)家發(fā)布的指數(shù)。在12月政府也不再發(fā)布此指數(shù)。

　　The bureau does, however, still track prices in the 70 individual cities that made up the index.Weighting the cities by population, and weighting the mix of new and existing properties byfloorspace, The Economist has tried to rebuild Chinas abandoned house-price index from its constituent parts. Our calculations suggest nationwide prices are still risingby 4% inthe year to Aprilbut only slowly. The pace of increase has eased steadily for 12 months in arow.

　　然而，統(tǒng)計(jì)局仍然關(guān)注著構(gòu)成這個(gè)指數(shù)的70個(gè)城市的房?jī)r(jià)。按人口來(lái)定這個(gè)城市的權(quán)重，還按建筑面積來(lái)定新建和現(xiàn)有房產(chǎn)的權(quán)重，經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)人試圖通過(guò)這種方法來(lái)重新得出已被棄用的房?jī)r(jià)指數(shù)。我們的估算表明，全國(guó)的價(jià)格仍在上升，今年截至4月上漲了4%，但增長(zhǎng)速度是比較慢的。增長(zhǎng)的步伐在12個(gè)月里已趨于平緩。

　　In the absence of credible government figures, many analysts have turned to private-sectoralternatives. A 100-city index published by Soufun, a property consultancy, shows prices risingby 5.1% in the year to May. But in many of those cities its coverage is patchy, especially insmaller localities where developers may not have good, computerised records to share. That isone reason why Ms Yao, who draws on Soufuns figures, concentrates only on the nine cities itcovers best.

　　由于缺乏可信的官方數(shù)據(jù)，許多分析家轉(zhuǎn)而借助私營(yíng)部門給出的數(shù)據(jù)。房產(chǎn)咨詢機(jī)構(gòu)搜房發(fā)布了100個(gè)城市的房?jī)r(jià)指數(shù)，表明今年截至5月房?jī)r(jià)上漲了5.1%。但在那些城市中有許多的覆蓋范圍是不完全的，特別是在一些小地方，開(kāi)發(fā)商也許仍未備有完善的電腦記錄。這就是為什么負(fù)責(zé)制作搜房的這個(gè)數(shù)據(jù)的Ms Yao只關(guān)注覆蓋范圍最完整的九個(gè)城市。

　　The first signs of a sharp reversal may not show upin prices anyway. The volume of sales tends to dropfirst, because optimistic developers will try to waitout a bad patch, hoping that better times will return.Despite the 18% rebound in May, most analystsbelieve sales are dropping sharply.

　　不管怎樣，一旦會(huì)有強(qiáng)烈反彈，房產(chǎn)價(jià)格也許反映不出第一手信號(hào)。剛開(kāi)始銷售額往往會(huì)下降，因?yàn)闃?lè)觀的開(kāi)發(fā)商會(huì)試圖死撐到控市政策不了了之，一心希望好景再返。盡管在5月出現(xiàn)了18%的反彈，許多分析家仍相信房產(chǎn)銷售量正在急劇下跌。

　　Developers can stay out of the market only for as long as they can stay out of the red. As theircash pile dwindles and liabilities fall due, they will be forced to sell, whatever the marketconditions. To give themselves more leeway, bigger developers have turned away from fickleonshore financing to international bond markets. The 30 developers rated by Standard Poors, a rating agency, raised about $8 billion of mostly five-year money in the first fivemonths of this year, compared with $8.8 billion in the whole of 2010, itself a record year.Developers can bring this money back into the country, despite Chinas capital controls,provided they show a bit of patience and a commitment to build things in unfancied cities.

　　只有能擺脫虧損，開(kāi)發(fā)商才會(huì)愿意撤出市場(chǎng)。隨著現(xiàn)金減少，貸款到期，無(wú)論市場(chǎng)條件如何，他們也得被迫出售手中的房。為了給自己留有更大的余地，更有實(shí)力的開(kāi)發(fā)商已從變數(shù)多端的境內(nèi)融資轉(zhuǎn)向國(guó)際債券市場(chǎng)。30家開(kāi)發(fā)商由評(píng)級(jí)機(jī)構(gòu)標(biāo)準(zhǔn)普爾給予評(píng)級(jí)，在今年的前5個(gè)月里便募集到了約80億美元的5年期資金，而在2010年里則募集到了88億美元。盡管中國(guó)對(duì)資本有控制，開(kāi)發(fā)商也可以將這些資金帶回國(guó)，只要他們對(duì)在一些不起眼的城市里建房表現(xiàn)出一點(diǎn)耐心和誠(chéng)意。

　　Even so, the debts of many smaller developers will fall due next year. Standard Poorsexpects property prices to fall by about 10% over the next 12 months, but it does not ruleout a price war if distressed selling by overstretched developers begins to feed on itself. IfChinas property market is a bubble, it may end with a squeal as well as a pop.

　　盡管如此，許多更小型開(kāi)發(fā)商的債務(wù)將會(huì)在明年到期。標(biāo)準(zhǔn)普爾預(yù)計(jì)在未來(lái)12月內(nèi)房產(chǎn)價(jià)格將會(huì)下跌10%，但如果資金已透支的開(kāi)發(fā)商通過(guò)廉價(jià)出售房產(chǎn)可以填補(bǔ)得了這些債務(wù)，也不排除將會(huì)有一場(chǎng)價(jià)格戰(zhàn)。如果中國(guó)的房地產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)是個(gè)泡沫，最后很可能會(huì)噼里啪啦般爆破掉。

　　Chinese property

　　中國(guó)的房地產(chǎn)

　　BUBBLES are supposed to burst with an audiblepop. But in the snap and crackle of the Chinesehousing market, it is hard to hear anything clearly. On June 9th the Wall Street Journal put itsear to the ground and declared that the great property bubble of China may be popping. Itpointed out that prices had fallen by 4.9% in the year to April in nine big cities tracked byRosealea Yao of GaveKal Dragonomics, a consultancy. Ms Yao herself thinks a correction inthe next six months is inevitable. But she argues that it is still a bit early to say the bubble isbursting.

　　泡沫爆破時(shí)本應(yīng)是有聲的。中國(guó)房地產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)雖是噼里啪啦地好不喧鬧，卻很難聽(tīng)清個(gè)中詳況。6月9日，華爾街日?qǐng)?bào)側(cè)耳傾聽(tīng)了一番后發(fā)表說(shuō)中國(guó)巨大的房產(chǎn)泡沫也許正在爆破。該報(bào)指出，今年截至4月九大城市的房產(chǎn)價(jià)格下降了4.9%，這是一家咨詢機(jī)構(gòu)GaveKal Dragonomics的Rosealea Yao所掌握到的信息。Ms Yao認(rèn)為在未來(lái)6個(gè)月內(nèi)房產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)必將迎來(lái)一段調(diào)整期。但她也認(rèn)為，現(xiàn)在說(shuō)泡沫會(huì)爆破還為時(shí)過(guò)早。

　　Official figures released on June 14th added more noise. They suggested that builders startedwork on 19% more residential floorspace in May, compared with a year earlier, and sold 18%more. But the sales figures were flattered by comparison with May 2010, an unusually slowmonth following a government clampdown on speculative homebuying a few weeks before. Andthe starts figures may have picked up the governments drive to build more affordablehousing.

　　6月14日發(fā)布的官方數(shù)據(jù)讓喧鬧之聲更起。這些數(shù)據(jù)表明，承建商在5月開(kāi)始動(dòng)工的住宅建筑比起一年前的多出19%，售出的也增加了18%。但銷售數(shù)據(jù)與2010年5月時(shí)比起來(lái)算是比較可喜的了，那個(gè)月正逢政府打壓房產(chǎn)買賣投資的幾個(gè)星期后，銷售形勢(shì)出奇地滯慢。而此段開(kāi)頭的那個(gè)數(shù)字也許會(huì)讓中國(guó)政府重拾建造更多經(jīng)濟(jì)適用房的勁頭。

　　In other countries, such as America, economists canrely on clear signals from credible price indices. InChina the National Bureau of Statistics used topublish a price index spanning 70 cities. But thatmeasure muted both the highs and lows of Chinashousing market. It suggested that prices for newand existing homes never fell by more than 1.3%during the financial crisis, and never rose by morethan 12.8% a year in the boom that followed. Thatwas hard to square with the head-splitting priceshomebuyers were paying in the big cities. Peoplestopped paying attention to the national index. In December the government ceased publishingit.

　　在別的國(guó)家，比如在美國(guó)，可信的物價(jià)指數(shù)可以給出明確的信號(hào)，經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家可以借此加以分析。在中國(guó)，國(guó)家統(tǒng)計(jì)局過(guò)去通常發(fā)表的是包括70個(gè)城市在內(nèi)的物價(jià)指數(shù)。但那種方法并無(wú)法說(shuō)明中國(guó)房地產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)的起起落落。它只是表明，即便是在經(jīng)濟(jì)危機(jī)時(shí)期新建和現(xiàn)有住宅的銷售量在一年內(nèi)跌幅也從未超過(guò)1.3%，且在隨之而來(lái)的繁榮期里其漲幅也從未超過(guò)12.8%。那可和大城市里購(gòu)房者面臨的令人頭疼的房?jī)r(jià)是不相符的。人們已不再關(guān)注國(guó)家發(fā)布的指數(shù)。在12月政府也不再發(fā)布此指數(shù)。

　　The bureau does, however, still track prices in the 70 individual cities that made up the index.Weighting the cities by population, and weighting the mix of new and existing properties byfloorspace, The Economist has tried to rebuild Chinas abandoned house-price index from its constituent parts. Our calculations suggest nationwide prices are still risingby 4% inthe year to Aprilbut only slowly. The pace of increase has eased steadily for 12 months in arow.

　　然而，統(tǒng)計(jì)局仍然關(guān)注著構(gòu)成這個(gè)指數(shù)的70個(gè)城市的房?jī)r(jià)。按人口來(lái)定這個(gè)城市的權(quán)重，還按建筑面積來(lái)定新建和現(xiàn)有房產(chǎn)的權(quán)重，經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)人試圖通過(guò)這種方法來(lái)重新得出已被棄用的房?jī)r(jià)指數(shù)。我們的估算表明，全國(guó)的價(jià)格仍在上升，今年截至4月上漲了4%，但增長(zhǎng)速度是比較慢的。增長(zhǎng)的步伐在12個(gè)月里已趨于平緩。

　　In the absence of credible government figures, many analysts have turned to private-sectoralternatives. A 100-city index published by Soufun, a property consultancy, shows prices risingby 5.1% in the year to May. But in many of those cities its coverage is patchy, especially insmaller localities where developers may not have good, computerised records to share. That isone reason why Ms Yao, who draws on Soufuns figures, concentrates only on the nine cities itcovers best.

　　由于缺乏可信的官方數(shù)據(jù)，許多分析家轉(zhuǎn)而借助私營(yíng)部門給出的數(shù)據(jù)。房產(chǎn)咨詢機(jī)構(gòu)搜房發(fā)布了100個(gè)城市的房?jī)r(jià)指數(shù)，表明今年截至5月房?jī)r(jià)上漲了5.1%。但在那些城市中有許多的覆蓋范圍是不完全的，特別是在一些小地方，開(kāi)發(fā)商也許仍未備有完善的電腦記錄。這就是為什么負(fù)責(zé)制作搜房的這個(gè)數(shù)據(jù)的Ms Yao只關(guān)注覆蓋范圍最完整的九個(gè)城市。

　　The first signs of a sharp reversal may not show upin prices anyway. The volume of sales tends to dropfirst, because optimistic developers will try to waitout a bad patch, hoping that better times will return.Despite the 18% rebound in May, most analystsbelieve sales are dropping sharply.

　　不管怎樣，一旦會(huì)有強(qiáng)烈反彈，房產(chǎn)價(jià)格也許反映不出第一手信號(hào)。剛開(kāi)始銷售額往往會(huì)下降，因?yàn)闃?lè)觀的開(kāi)發(fā)商會(huì)試圖死撐到控市政策不了了之，一心希望好景再返。盡管在5月出現(xiàn)了18%的反彈，許多分析家仍相信房產(chǎn)銷售量正在急劇下跌。

　　Developers can stay out of the market only for as long as they can stay out of the red. As theircash pile dwindles and liabilities fall due, they will be forced to sell, whatever the marketconditions. To give themselves more leeway, bigger developers have turned away from fickleonshore financing to international bond markets. The 30 developers rated by Standard Poors, a rating agency, raised about $8 billion of mostly five-year money in the first fivemonths of this year, compared with $8.8 billion in the whole of 2010, itself a record year.Developers can bring this money back into the country, despite Chinas capital controls,provided they show a bit of patience and a commitment to build things in unfancied cities.

　　只有能擺脫虧損，開(kāi)發(fā)商才會(huì)愿意撤出市場(chǎng)。隨著現(xiàn)金減少，貸款到期，無(wú)論市場(chǎng)條件如何，他們也得被迫出售手中的房。為了給自己留有更大的余地，更有實(shí)力的開(kāi)發(fā)商已從變數(shù)多端的境內(nèi)融資轉(zhuǎn)向國(guó)際債券市場(chǎng)。30家開(kāi)發(fā)商由評(píng)級(jí)機(jī)構(gòu)標(biāo)準(zhǔn)普爾給予評(píng)級(jí)，在今年的前5個(gè)月里便募集到了約80億美元的5年期資金，而在2010年里則募集到了88億美元。盡管中國(guó)對(duì)資本有控制，開(kāi)發(fā)商也可以將這些資金帶回國(guó)，只要他們對(duì)在一些不起眼的城市里建房表現(xiàn)出一點(diǎn)耐心和誠(chéng)意。

　　Even so, the debts of many smaller developers will fall due next year. Standard Poorsexpects property prices to fall by about 10% over the next 12 months, but it does not ruleout a price war if distressed selling by overstretched developers begins to feed on itself. IfChinas property market is a bubble, it may end with a squeal as well as a pop.

　　盡管如此，許多更小型開(kāi)發(fā)商的債務(wù)將會(huì)在明年到期。標(biāo)準(zhǔn)普爾預(yù)計(jì)在未來(lái)12月內(nèi)房產(chǎn)價(jià)格將會(huì)下跌10%，但如果資金已透支的開(kāi)發(fā)商通過(guò)廉價(jià)出售房產(chǎn)可以填補(bǔ)得了這些債務(wù)，也不排除將會(huì)有一場(chǎng)價(jià)格戰(zhàn)。如果中國(guó)的房地產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)是個(gè)泡沫，最后很可能會(huì)噼里啪啦般爆破掉。