The University of Montana geophysicist knows you may have read the articles warning about "swarms of devastating earthquakes" that will allegedly rock the planet next year thanks to a slowdown of the Earth's rotation. And she feels "very awful" if you've been alarmed.

由于地球轉(zhuǎn)速減慢，明年將出現(xiàn)大量的強(qiáng)烈地震，許多文章稱這些地震會(huì)撼動(dòng)整個(gè)地球。蒙大拿大學(xué)的地理學(xué)家稱，很多人都讀過(guò)這些文章并且受到了警示，這真“讓人不悅”。

Those dire threats are based on Bendick's research into patterns that might predict earthquakes - but claims of an impending "earthquake boom" are mostly sensationalism.

這些膽大妄言的警告都是基于Bendick對(duì)地球旋轉(zhuǎn)模式的研究，這一研究結(jié)果預(yù)測(cè)了地震的出現(xiàn)——但是宣稱人類面臨“地震狂潮”的說(shuō)法絕大程度都是聳人聽(tīng)聞。

Here is what the science actually says.There is no way to predict an individual earthquake. Earthquakes occur when potential energy stored along cracks in the planet's crust gets released, sending seismic waves through the Earth.

這位科學(xué)家確切的說(shuō)法是這樣的。目前沒(méi)有辦法預(yù)測(cè)單個(gè)的地震。當(dāng)?shù)貧鄬又袃?chǔ)蓄的勢(shì)能被釋放出來(lái)，向地表傳送地震波時(shí)就會(huì)出現(xiàn)地震群。

Since scientists know where those cracks exist, and how they are likely to convulse, they can develop forecasts of the general threat for an area. But the forces that contribute to this energy buildup and trigger its release are global and complex, and we still cannot sort out exactly how it might unfold.

科學(xué)家們知道這些斷層所在的位置，也了解地殼運(yùn)動(dòng)的模式，因而能夠預(yù)測(cè)大體某一地區(qū)可能出現(xiàn)的地震。但是形成地震勢(shì)能并激發(fā)勢(shì)能釋放的能量分布在全球各地，難以查尋，所以我們對(duì)這股能量如何釋放還沒(méi)有確切的了解。

Bendick and colleagues did find a curious correlation between clusters of certain earthquakes and periodic fluctuations in Earth's rotation.

Bendick和同事們發(fā)現(xiàn)地震群與地球轉(zhuǎn)速的周期性浮動(dòng)之間存在有趣的聯(lián)系。

By examining the historic earthquake record and monitoring those fluctuations, scientists might be able to forecast years when earthquakes are more likely to occur, they suggest.

科學(xué)家們表示，通過(guò)察看歷史上的地震記錄并監(jiān)視地球轉(zhuǎn)速的浮動(dòng)周期，他們將可以預(yù)測(cè)地震發(fā)生可能性較高的年份。

But that conclusion is by no means set in stone. It hasn't been demonstrated in the lab or confirmed by follow-up studies. Several scientists have said they're not yet convinced by Bendick's research.

但是這一研究結(jié)論并沒(méi)有得到確證。它還沒(méi)有經(jīng)過(guò)實(shí)驗(yàn)室里的實(shí)驗(yàn)驗(yàn)證，也沒(méi)有得到后續(xù)研究的證實(shí)。許多科學(xué)家都表示Bendick的研究成果并不能使他們信服。

Historically, the field of earthquake forecasting has seen some particularly outlandish claims.

歷史上，為了預(yù)測(cè)地震，人們?cè)鲞^(guò)許多匪夷所思的嘗試。

People have tried to predict temblors based on the behaviour of animals, gas emissions from rocks, low-frequency electric signals rippling through the Earth - all without much success.

人們?cè)噲D根據(jù)動(dòng)物的行為，巖石縫隙里泄露的氣體，低頻率的電磁場(chǎng)作用等來(lái)預(yù)測(cè)地震，但最終都未能成功。

For that reason, Bendick said, "it's a little bit scary to get into the game." But getting a prediction right can mean the difference between life and death for countless people. The stakes are too high not to try.

正因如此，Bendick說(shuō)，“進(jìn)入這個(gè)研究領(lǐng)域會(huì)讓人有些惶恐?！钡牵龀鰷?zhǔn)確的預(yù)測(cè)對(duì)于數(shù)以萬(wàn)計(jì)的人來(lái)說(shuō)是生死攸關(guān)的大事。這籌碼太大了，讓人不得不設(shè)身其中。

Earth is currently at the end of a slowing period, Bendick pointed out, and the historic record would indicate another "cluster" may be on its way.

地球目前正處于一個(gè)轉(zhuǎn)速減緩的周期末端，Bendick說(shuō)，根據(jù)歷史上的記錄推斷，下一個(gè)地震群已經(jīng)在路上了。

But that doesn't necessarily mean 2024 will be a particularly devastating year. For one thing, the kinds of temblors Bendick analysed happen in areas that are already earthquake-prone - Japan, New Zealand, the west coast of the United States. For people who live in those regions, there is always a risk of a quake, and it is always good to be prepared.

不過(guò)這并不意味著2024年會(huì)是災(zāi)難深重的一年。這樣說(shuō)的原因之一是，Bendick分析預(yù)測(cè)出的地震群發(fā)生的地點(diǎn)都是地震的高頻地帶——日本，新西蘭，美國(guó)西海岸。對(duì)住在這些地區(qū)的人來(lái)說(shuō)，他們總面臨著地震的威脅，有備無(wú)患是很必要的。

The University of Montana geophysicist knows you may have read the articles warning about "swarms of devastating earthquakes" that will allegedly rock the planet next year thanks to a slowdown of the Earth's rotation. And she feels "very awful" if you've been alarmed.

由于地球轉(zhuǎn)速減慢，明年將出現(xiàn)大量的強(qiáng)烈地震，許多文章稱這些地震會(huì)撼動(dòng)整個(gè)地球。蒙大拿大學(xué)的地理學(xué)家稱，很多人都讀過(guò)這些文章并且受到了警示，這真“讓人不悅”。

Those dire threats are based on Bendick's research into patterns that might predict earthquakes - but claims of an impending "earthquake boom" are mostly sensationalism.

這些膽大妄言的警告都是基于Bendick對(duì)地球旋轉(zhuǎn)模式的研究，這一研究結(jié)果預(yù)測(cè)了地震的出現(xiàn)——但是宣稱人類面臨“地震狂潮”的說(shuō)法絕大程度都是聳人聽(tīng)聞。

Here is what the science actually says.There is no way to predict an individual earthquake. Earthquakes occur when potential energy stored along cracks in the planet's crust gets released, sending seismic waves through the Earth.

這位科學(xué)家確切的說(shuō)法是這樣的。目前沒(méi)有辦法預(yù)測(cè)單個(gè)的地震。當(dāng)?shù)貧鄬又袃?chǔ)蓄的勢(shì)能被釋放出來(lái)，向地表傳送地震波時(shí)就會(huì)出現(xiàn)地震群。

Since scientists know where those cracks exist, and how they are likely to convulse, they can develop forecasts of the general threat for an area. But the forces that contribute to this energy buildup and trigger its release are global and complex, and we still cannot sort out exactly how it might unfold.

科學(xué)家們知道這些斷層所在的位置，也了解地殼運(yùn)動(dòng)的模式，因而能夠預(yù)測(cè)大體某一地區(qū)可能出現(xiàn)的地震。但是形成地震勢(shì)能并激發(fā)勢(shì)能釋放的能量分布在全球各地，難以查尋，所以我們對(duì)這股能量如何釋放還沒(méi)有確切的了解。

Bendick and colleagues did find a curious correlation between clusters of certain earthquakes and periodic fluctuations in Earth's rotation.

Bendick和同事們發(fā)現(xiàn)地震群與地球轉(zhuǎn)速的周期性浮動(dòng)之間存在有趣的聯(lián)系。

By examining the historic earthquake record and monitoring those fluctuations, scientists might be able to forecast years when earthquakes are more likely to occur, they suggest.

科學(xué)家們表示，通過(guò)察看歷史上的地震記錄并監(jiān)視地球轉(zhuǎn)速的浮動(dòng)周期，他們將可以預(yù)測(cè)地震發(fā)生可能性較高的年份。

But that conclusion is by no means set in stone. It hasn't been demonstrated in the lab or confirmed by follow-up studies. Several scientists have said they're not yet convinced by Bendick's research.

但是這一研究結(jié)論并沒(méi)有得到確證。它還沒(méi)有經(jīng)過(guò)實(shí)驗(yàn)室里的實(shí)驗(yàn)驗(yàn)證，也沒(méi)有得到后續(xù)研究的證實(shí)。許多科學(xué)家都表示Bendick的研究成果并不能使他們信服。

Historically, the field of earthquake forecasting has seen some particularly outlandish claims.

歷史上，為了預(yù)測(cè)地震，人們?cè)鲞^(guò)許多匪夷所思的嘗試。

People have tried to predict temblors based on the behaviour of animals, gas emissions from rocks, low-frequency electric signals rippling through the Earth - all without much success.

人們?cè)噲D根據(jù)動(dòng)物的行為，巖石縫隙里泄露的氣體，低頻率的電磁場(chǎng)作用等來(lái)預(yù)測(cè)地震，但最終都未能成功。

For that reason, Bendick said, "it's a little bit scary to get into the game." But getting a prediction right can mean the difference between life and death for countless people. The stakes are too high not to try.

正因如此，Bendick說(shuō)，“進(jìn)入這個(gè)研究領(lǐng)域會(huì)讓人有些惶恐。”但是，做出準(zhǔn)確的預(yù)測(cè)對(duì)于數(shù)以萬(wàn)計(jì)的人來(lái)說(shuō)是生死攸關(guān)的大事。這籌碼太大了，讓人不得不設(shè)身其中。

Earth is currently at the end of a slowing period, Bendick pointed out, and the historic record would indicate another "cluster" may be on its way.

地球目前正處于一個(gè)轉(zhuǎn)速減緩的周期末端，Bendick說(shuō)，根據(jù)歷史上的記錄推斷，下一個(gè)地震群已經(jīng)在路上了。

But that doesn't necessarily mean 2024 will be a particularly devastating year. For one thing, the kinds of temblors Bendick analysed happen in areas that are already earthquake-prone - Japan, New Zealand, the west coast of the United States. For people who live in those regions, there is always a risk of a quake, and it is always good to be prepared.

不過(guò)這并不意味著2024年會(huì)是災(zāi)難深重的一年。這樣說(shuō)的原因之一是，Bendick分析預(yù)測(cè)出的地震群發(fā)生的地點(diǎn)都是地震的高頻地帶——日本，新西蘭，美國(guó)西海岸。對(duì)住在這些地區(qū)的人來(lái)說(shuō)，他們總面臨著地震的威脅，有備無(wú)患是很必要的。