An odd thing happened at Donald Trump’s victory rally last week. Having evaded his bouncers, I made my way to the centre of the throng as it awaited The Donald’s arrival. The crowd erupted into boos when Hillary Clinton appeared on the television screen. You could hear a pin drop when Bernie Sanders popped up a few minutes later.

在唐納德礠朗普(Donald Trump)最近的慶功會上發(fā)生了一件奇怪的事情。在避開特朗普的保鏢后，我擠入了等待特朗普到來的人群中間。當(dāng)希拉里克林頓(Hillary Clinton)出現(xiàn)在電視屏幕上時(shí)，人群中爆發(fā)出一片噓聲。而當(dāng)幾分鐘后伯尼儠德斯(Bernie Sanders)出現(xiàn)時(shí)，四周靜得落針可聞。

It was the respect shown by one anti-establishment wave to another. The contrast spoke volumes. They may come from opposite ends of the political spectrum but they are united in antipathy to Mrs Clinton.

這是一個(gè)反當(dāng)權(quán)派陣營對另一個(gè)反當(dāng)權(quán)派陣營展示的尊重。前后的對比充分說明了這點(diǎn)。他們或許來自政治圖譜的兩個(gè)相反的極端，但是他們在反感希拉里上是一致的。

It is not easy being Mrs Clinton. During the 1990s she was excoriated as a bra-burning feminist who wanted to socialise the US’s healthcare. Back then it was the establishment who detested her. Today, she is reviled by women and men alike for personifying the establishment. Moreover, her opponent, Mr Sanders, wants to socialise healthcare: Canada and the UK are the single-payer models he would emulate. Mrs Clinton, meanwhile, is disdained for not wanting to match him. Whatever she does, vilification is assured. As I said, it cannot be easy being Mrs Clinton.

希拉里不容易。在上世紀(jì)90年代，人們指責(zé)她為希望把美國醫(yī)保制度社會主義化的激進(jìn)女權(quán)主義者。那時(shí)，厭惡她的正是當(dāng)權(quán)派。如今，她因?yàn)榇碇?dāng)權(quán)派而受到攻擊，攻擊她的人既有男性，也有女性。此外，她的競爭對手桑德斯希望將醫(yī)保制度社會主義化：加拿大和英國的單一給付制是他希望效仿的的模板。希拉里則因不認(rèn)同他的提議而遭到蔑視。無論她做什么，必然會引來罵聲一片。正如我所說的，希拉里的處境不容易。

It is about to become harder. In less than two weeks, Mrs Clinton must win the South Carolina primary. Unlike New Hampshire, which was always likely to “feel the Bern”, South Carolina is solid Clinton territory. It is the first state in her so-called southern firewall against Mr Sanders’s bandwagon. The latest polls give her a 30-point lead. If her margin of victory is below double digits, doubts about her electability will grow. If she wins decisively, last week will look like a blip. A breach in the firewall, on the other hand, could finish her. There is a lot riding on South Carolina.

希拉里的處境會愈發(fā)艱難。她必須贏得即將到來的南卡羅來納州的初選。新罕布什爾州原本就是一直可能被桑德斯拿下的，南卡羅來納州則毋庸置疑是希拉里的地盤。這是她對抗桑德斯陣營的所謂南部防火墻的第一個(gè)州。最新的民調(diào)顯示，希拉里在南卡領(lǐng)先30個(gè)百分點(diǎn)。如果她在南卡勝出的領(lǐng)先幅度低于兩位數(shù)，人們對于她能否拿到總統(tǒng)候選人資格就將愈發(fā)懷疑。如果她在南卡取得了壓倒性勝利，最近的結(jié)果看起來就會像是暫時(shí)的失利（編者注：希拉里在內(nèi)華達(dá)州民主黨黨團(tuán)會議的投票中以52%對48%險(xiǎn)勝桑德斯）。另一方面，假如南卡失守，她的競選之路就可能走到盡頭。南卡一役有很多看頭。

To seal the deal, Mrs Clinton must perform Houdini-like feats. She must find a way of beating Mr Sanders without going negative. That is the biggest lesson from her New Hampshire defeat. More than nine out of 10 rated Mr Sanders as more honest and trustworthy than Mrs Clinton — and they were just the Democratic voters. Second, she needs to bring Mr Sanders down without sounding like a Republican. His plans would push US federal spending up to European levels. Puncturing his dreams without alienating liberals will be a challenge. Third, she must stick to her Obama-third-term script while letting voters know she shares their anger. It is not easy to promise continuity while raging against the status quo.

要漂漂亮亮地打贏這一仗，希拉里必須表現(xiàn)出如魔術(shù)大師胡迪尼(Houdini)一般的精湛技藝。她必須找到一種能夠光明正大地打敗桑德斯的方式）。這是她在新罕布什爾的敗選帶來的最重要的教訓(xùn)。超過十分之九的選民認(rèn)為桑德斯比希拉里更誠實(shí)正直、更值得信任——而這還只是民主黨的選民。第二點(diǎn)，她需要既打敗桑德斯、又避免聽起來像一個(gè)共和黨人。桑德斯的計(jì)劃會把美國的聯(lián)邦支出推高至歐洲水平。戳破他的幻夢，而又不失去自由主義者的支持，將是一項(xiàng)挑戰(zhàn)。第三點(diǎn)，她必須在堅(jiān)持“奧巴馬第三任期”打算的同時(shí)，讓選民知道她能夠感受到他們的憤怒。一方面承諾將保持政策連續(xù)性，另一方面斥責(zé)現(xiàn)狀，這不容易做到。

The upside is that figuring out how to defeat Mr Sanders would be good practice for confronting Mr Trump in a presidential election. The two have more in common than their anti-establishment support base. Both have a habit of promising the moon. Mr Sanders would convert the US into a Scandinavian social democracy. Mr Trump would make America great again. Both are arch-fantasists with an ability to recruit voters and appeal to independents. That is where the similarities end. Mr Sanders is a civil opponent. He has refrained from personal attacks on Mrs Clinton’s character. The Donald, on the other hand, knows no boundaries. “If she can’t satisfy Bill Clinton,” he said, “how can she satisfy America?”

好處在于，搞清楚如何打敗桑德斯將會成為一次很好的練習(xí)，有利于希拉里在總統(tǒng)競選中對抗特朗普。特朗普與桑德斯的共同點(diǎn)不止是兩人的主要支持者都反對當(dāng)權(quán)派，兩人還都喜歡開空頭支票：桑德斯想把美國變成一個(gè)斯堪的納維亞式社會民主國家；特朗普想讓美國再次成為一個(gè)偉大的國家。兩人都有著天馬行空的幻想，擁有鼓動(dòng)人心、吸引獨(dú)立選民的能力。他們還有一點(diǎn)最大的區(qū)別。桑德斯是文明的對手。他始終克制自己不侮辱希拉里的人格。特朗普則沒有底線。“如果她無法滿足比爾克林頓(Bill Clinton)，”他稱，“她如何能滿足美國？”

How indeed? The key is in reminding voters that level-headedness is a virtue. They are also choosing America’s next commander-in-chief. Mr Sanders’s foreign policy boils down to one promise — he won’t start any wars. The rest is a replay of his 1960s student radicalism. In the latest Democratic debate, Mr Sanders’s grasp of the world stopped at roughly the midpoint of the cold war. He attacked the US’s overthrow of Iran’s Mossadeq government in 1953. He railed against Henry Kissinger’s secret bombing of Cambodia in the early 1970s. He also stood foursquare behind Franklin Roosevelt’s plea for the US to avoid acting out of fear.

這倒真是個(gè)問題。關(guān)鍵在于，要提醒選民，頭腦冷靜是一種美德。選總統(tǒng)也是在選美國的下一任總司令。桑德斯的外交政策可以歸結(jié)為一個(gè)承諾——他不會發(fā)動(dòng)任何戰(zhàn)爭。其他部分則是重申他在上世紀(jì)60年代的學(xué)生激進(jìn)主義。在最近一場民主黨辯論中，桑德斯對世界的理解幾乎還停留在冷戰(zhàn)中點(diǎn)。他抨擊了美國1953年推翻伊朗莫薩德克(Mossadeq)政府的舉動(dòng)。他痛斥了亨利蘒魗格(Henry Kissinger)上世紀(jì)70年代初秘密轟炸柬埔寨的行為。他還堅(jiān)定不移地支持富蘭克林圠斯福(Franklin Roosevelt)懇求美國避免因恐懼而采取行動(dòng)的立場。

He was right on every point. But his grasp of the US’s present-day challenges is considerably weaker. When asked to name a foreign policy adviser, Mr Sanders mentioned Lawrence Korb at the Center for American Progress. Mr Korb has met Mr Sanders once for a short briefing. Mr Sanders’s plan to defeat Isis is to persuade “the Muslim countries” to form a coalition. This would involve a highly improbable alliance between Iran and Saudi Arabia. In reality, they would be likelier to turn their guns on each other. “It is a big, complicated world out there,” Mrs Clinton reminded him in last week’s debate.

他說的都沒錯(cuò)。但是對今日美國面臨的挑戰(zhàn)，他的理解則薄弱得多。當(dāng)被要求說出一位外交政策顧問時(shí)，桑德斯提到了美國進(jìn)步中心(Center for American Progress)的勞倫斯科布(Lawrence Korb)。科布見過桑德斯一次，為他做了短暫的簡報(bào)。桑德斯挫敗“伊拉克和黎凡特伊斯蘭國”(ISIS)的計(jì)劃是說服“穆斯林國家”組成聯(lián)盟。這意味著伊朗和沙特阿拉伯結(jié)盟——事實(shí)上是極為不可能的。在現(xiàn)實(shí)世界中，兩國更可能刀兵相見。“那是一個(gè)龐大而復(fù)雜的世界，”希拉里在最近的辯論中提醒他道。

At 74, it seems a little late for Mr Sanders to catch up on his homework. Mr Trump, on the other hand, gladly ad洀椀琀猀 to having no advisers. According to him, the US is being screwed by its allies and beaten by its adversaries. As a world class dealmaker, he will put both those issues right. If he needs experts he will hire them. Meanwhile he will “bomb the shit” out of Isis. That is about it.

桑德斯已經(jīng)74歲了，對他來說現(xiàn)在再去趕功課似乎有點(diǎn)晚了。特朗普則欣然承認(rèn)他沒有顧問。在他看來，美國如今被盟友坑慘了，還遭受著敵人的痛擊。作為一個(gè)一流的交易撮合者，他會把兩個(gè)問題統(tǒng)統(tǒng)擺平。如果他需要專家的話，他會聘請他們。與此同時(shí)，他會把ISIS“炸出翔”。這差不多就是他的計(jì)劃了。

Mrs Clinton’s immediate fate will be determined by issues closer to home. Can she bring out the African-American vote in South Carolina? Will women return to the fold? The big picture matters to them too. Whatever your view of her, no rival has anything close to Mrs Clinton’s foreign policy experience. Mr Sanders and Mr Trump insist judgment is what matters. So here is a test of Mrs Clinton’s political skills: can she convince voters her opponents lack judgment? There is a big curious world out there waiting to find out.

希拉里目前的命運(yùn)將由跟美國自身更息息相關(guān)的問題決定。她能爭取到南卡羅來納的非裔美國人為她投票嗎？女性選民會回頭支持她嗎？大局也關(guān)系到她們。無論你怎么看待希拉里，希拉里在外交政策上的經(jīng)驗(yàn)無人能夠企及。桑德斯和特朗普堅(jiān)持認(rèn)為判斷力才是最重要的。那么現(xiàn)在就是考驗(yàn)希拉里政治技巧的時(shí)候了：她能向選民證明她的競爭對手們判斷力不佳嗎？整個(gè)世界都在好奇地等待答案揭曉。

An odd thing happened at Donald Trump’s victory rally last week. Having evaded his bouncers, I made my way to the centre of the throng as it awaited The Donald’s arrival. The crowd erupted into boos when Hillary Clinton appeared on the television screen. You could hear a pin drop when Bernie Sanders popped up a few minutes later.

在唐納德礠朗普(Donald Trump)最近的慶功會上發(fā)生了一件奇怪的事情。在避開特朗普的保鏢后，我擠入了等待特朗普到來的人群中間。當(dāng)希拉里克林頓(Hillary Clinton)出現(xiàn)在電視屏幕上時(shí)，人群中爆發(fā)出一片噓聲。而當(dāng)幾分鐘后伯尼儠德斯(Bernie Sanders)出現(xiàn)時(shí)，四周靜得落針可聞。

It was the respect shown by one anti-establishment wave to another. The contrast spoke volumes. They may come from opposite ends of the political spectrum but they are united in antipathy to Mrs Clinton.

這是一個(gè)反當(dāng)權(quán)派陣營對另一個(gè)反當(dāng)權(quán)派陣營展示的尊重。前后的對比充分說明了這點(diǎn)。他們或許來自政治圖譜的兩個(gè)相反的極端，但是他們在反感希拉里上是一致的。

It is not easy being Mrs Clinton. During the 1990s she was excoriated as a bra-burning feminist who wanted to socialise the US’s healthcare. Back then it was the establishment who detested her. Today, she is reviled by women and men alike for personifying the establishment. Moreover, her opponent, Mr Sanders, wants to socialise healthcare: Canada and the UK are the single-payer models he would emulate. Mrs Clinton, meanwhile, is disdained for not wanting to match him. Whatever she does, vilification is assured. As I said, it cannot be easy being Mrs Clinton.

希拉里不容易。在上世紀(jì)90年代，人們指責(zé)她為希望把美國醫(yī)保制度社會主義化的激進(jìn)女權(quán)主義者。那時(shí)，厭惡她的正是當(dāng)權(quán)派。如今，她因?yàn)榇碇?dāng)權(quán)派而受到攻擊，攻擊她的人既有男性，也有女性。此外，她的競爭對手桑德斯希望將醫(yī)保制度社會主義化：加拿大和英國的單一給付制是他希望效仿的的模板。希拉里則因不認(rèn)同他的提議而遭到蔑視。無論她做什么，必然會引來罵聲一片。正如我所說的，希拉里的處境不容易。

It is about to become harder. In less than two weeks, Mrs Clinton must win the South Carolina primary. Unlike New Hampshire, which was always likely to “feel the Bern”, South Carolina is solid Clinton territory. It is the first state in her so-called southern firewall against Mr Sanders’s bandwagon. The latest polls give her a 30-point lead. If her margin of victory is below double digits, doubts about her electability will grow. If she wins decisively, last week will look like a blip. A breach in the firewall, on the other hand, could finish her. There is a lot riding on South Carolina.

希拉里的處境會愈發(fā)艱難。她必須贏得即將到來的南卡羅來納州的初選。新罕布什爾州原本就是一直可能被桑德斯拿下的，南卡羅來納州則毋庸置疑是希拉里的地盤。這是她對抗桑德斯陣營的所謂南部防火墻的第一個(gè)州。最新的民調(diào)顯示，希拉里在南卡領(lǐng)先30個(gè)百分點(diǎn)。如果她在南卡勝出的領(lǐng)先幅度低于兩位數(shù)，人們對于她能否拿到總統(tǒng)候選人資格就將愈發(fā)懷疑。如果她在南卡取得了壓倒性勝利，最近的結(jié)果看起來就會像是暫時(shí)的失利（編者注：希拉里在內(nèi)華達(dá)州民主黨黨團(tuán)會議的投票中以52%對48%險(xiǎn)勝桑德斯）。另一方面，假如南卡失守，她的競選之路就可能走到盡頭。南卡一役有很多看頭。

To seal the deal, Mrs Clinton must perform Houdini-like feats. She must find a way of beating Mr Sanders without going negative. That is the biggest lesson from her New Hampshire defeat. More than nine out of 10 rated Mr Sanders as more honest and trustworthy than Mrs Clinton — and they were just the Democratic voters. Second, she needs to bring Mr Sanders down without sounding like a Republican. His plans would push US federal spending up to European levels. Puncturing his dreams without alienating liberals will be a challenge. Third, she must stick to her Obama-third-term script while letting voters know she shares their anger. It is not easy to promise continuity while raging against the status quo.

要漂漂亮亮地打贏這一仗，希拉里必須表現(xiàn)出如魔術(shù)大師胡迪尼(Houdini)一般的精湛技藝。她必須找到一種能夠光明正大地打敗桑德斯的方式）。這是她在新罕布什爾的敗選帶來的最重要的教訓(xùn)。超過十分之九的選民認(rèn)為桑德斯比希拉里更誠實(shí)正直、更值得信任——而這還只是民主黨的選民。第二點(diǎn)，她需要既打敗桑德斯、又避免聽起來像一個(gè)共和黨人。桑德斯的計(jì)劃會把美國的聯(lián)邦支出推高至歐洲水平。戳破他的幻夢，而又不失去自由主義者的支持，將是一項(xiàng)挑戰(zhàn)。第三點(diǎn)，她必須在堅(jiān)持“奧巴馬第三任期”打算的同時(shí)，讓選民知道她能夠感受到他們的憤怒。一方面承諾將保持政策連續(xù)性，另一方面斥責(zé)現(xiàn)狀，這不容易做到。

The upside is that figuring out how to defeat Mr Sanders would be good practice for confronting Mr Trump in a presidential election. The two have more in common than their anti-establishment support base. Both have a habit of promising the moon. Mr Sanders would convert the US into a Scandinavian social democracy. Mr Trump would make America great again. Both are arch-fantasists with an ability to recruit voters and appeal to independents. That is where the similarities end. Mr Sanders is a civil opponent. He has refrained from personal attacks on Mrs Clinton’s character. The Donald, on the other hand, knows no boundaries. “If she can’t satisfy Bill Clinton,” he said, “how can she satisfy America?”

好處在于，搞清楚如何打敗桑德斯將會成為一次很好的練習(xí)，有利于希拉里在總統(tǒng)競選中對抗特朗普。特朗普與桑德斯的共同點(diǎn)不止是兩人的主要支持者都反對當(dāng)權(quán)派，兩人還都喜歡開空頭支票：桑德斯想把美國變成一個(gè)斯堪的納維亞式社會民主國家；特朗普想讓美國再次成為一個(gè)偉大的國家。兩人都有著天馬行空的幻想，擁有鼓動(dòng)人心、吸引獨(dú)立選民的能力。他們還有一點(diǎn)最大的區(qū)別。桑德斯是文明的對手。他始終克制自己不侮辱希拉里的人格。特朗普則沒有底線。“如果她無法滿足比爾克林頓(Bill Clinton)，”他稱，“她如何能滿足美國？”

How indeed? The key is in reminding voters that level-headedness is a virtue. They are also choosing America’s next commander-in-chief. Mr Sanders’s foreign policy boils down to one promise — he won’t start any wars. The rest is a replay of his 1960s student radicalism. In the latest Democratic debate, Mr Sanders’s grasp of the world stopped at roughly the midpoint of the cold war. He attacked the US’s overthrow of Iran’s Mossadeq government in 1953. He railed against Henry Kissinger’s secret bombing of Cambodia in the early 1970s. He also stood foursquare behind Franklin Roosevelt’s plea for the US to avoid acting out of fear.

這倒真是個(gè)問題。關(guān)鍵在于，要提醒選民，頭腦冷靜是一種美德。選總統(tǒng)也是在選美國的下一任總司令。桑德斯的外交政策可以歸結(jié)為一個(gè)承諾——他不會發(fā)動(dòng)任何戰(zhàn)爭。其他部分則是重申他在上世紀(jì)60年代的學(xué)生激進(jìn)主義。在最近一場民主黨辯論中，桑德斯對世界的理解幾乎還停留在冷戰(zhàn)中點(diǎn)。他抨擊了美國1953年推翻伊朗莫薩德克(Mossadeq)政府的舉動(dòng)。他痛斥了亨利蘒魗格(Henry Kissinger)上世紀(jì)70年代初秘密轟炸柬埔寨的行為。他還堅(jiān)定不移地支持富蘭克林圠斯福(Franklin Roosevelt)懇求美國避免因恐懼而采取行動(dòng)的立場。

He was right on every point. But his grasp of the US’s present-day challenges is considerably weaker. When asked to name a foreign policy adviser, Mr Sanders mentioned Lawrence Korb at the Center for American Progress. Mr Korb has met Mr Sanders once for a short briefing. Mr Sanders’s plan to defeat Isis is to persuade “the Muslim countries” to form a coalition. This would involve a highly improbable alliance between Iran and Saudi Arabia. In reality, they would be likelier to turn their guns on each other. “It is a big, complicated world out there,” Mrs Clinton reminded him in last week’s debate.

他說的都沒錯(cuò)。但是對今日美國面臨的挑戰(zhàn)，他的理解則薄弱得多。當(dāng)被要求說出一位外交政策顧問時(shí)，桑德斯提到了美國進(jìn)步中心(Center for American Progress)的勞倫斯科布(Lawrence Korb)。科布見過桑德斯一次，為他做了短暫的簡報(bào)。桑德斯挫敗“伊拉克和黎凡特伊斯蘭國”(ISIS)的計(jì)劃是說服“穆斯林國家”組成聯(lián)盟。這意味著伊朗和沙特阿拉伯結(jié)盟——事實(shí)上是極為不可能的。在現(xiàn)實(shí)世界中，兩國更可能刀兵相見。“那是一個(gè)龐大而復(fù)雜的世界，”希拉里在最近的辯論中提醒他道。

At 74, it seems a little late for Mr Sanders to catch up on his homework. Mr Trump, on the other hand, gladly ad洀椀琀猀 to having no advisers. According to him, the US is being screwed by its allies and beaten by its adversaries. As a world class dealmaker, he will put both those issues right. If he needs experts he will hire them. Meanwhile he will “bomb the shit” out of Isis. That is about it.

桑德斯已經(jīng)74歲了，對他來說現(xiàn)在再去趕功課似乎有點(diǎn)晚了。特朗普則欣然承認(rèn)他沒有顧問。在他看來，美國如今被盟友坑慘了，還遭受著敵人的痛擊。作為一個(gè)一流的交易撮合者，他會把兩個(gè)問題統(tǒng)統(tǒng)擺平。如果他需要專家的話，他會聘請他們。與此同時(shí)，他會把ISIS“炸出翔”。這差不多就是他的計(jì)劃了。

Mrs Clinton’s immediate fate will be determined by issues closer to home. Can she bring out the African-American vote in South Carolina? Will women return to the fold? The big picture matters to them too. Whatever your view of her, no rival has anything close to Mrs Clinton’s foreign policy experience. Mr Sanders and Mr Trump insist judgment is what matters. So here is a test of Mrs Clinton’s political skills: can she convince voters her opponents lack judgment? There is a big curious world out there waiting to find out.

希拉里目前的命運(yùn)將由跟美國自身更息息相關(guān)的問題決定。她能爭取到南卡羅來納的非裔美國人為她投票嗎？女性選民會回頭支持她嗎？大局也關(guān)系到她們。無論你怎么看待希拉里，希拉里在外交政策上的經(jīng)驗(yàn)無人能夠企及。桑德斯和特朗普堅(jiān)持認(rèn)為判斷力才是最重要的。那么現(xiàn)在就是考驗(yàn)希拉里政治技巧的時(shí)候了：她能向選民證明她的競爭對手們判斷力不佳嗎？整個(gè)世界都在好奇地等待答案揭曉。